Iran’s Presidential Politics – Which IRGC Commander do You Prefer?
December 22, 2008 by Steven OHern · Leave a Comment
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the mayor of Tehran is profiled as a likely opponent to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the Boston Globe. The article describes Ghalibaf as a more modern, gentler replacement for Ahmadinejad:
As mayor of a city where Calvin Klein ads compete with portraits of war heroes and clerics, [Ghalibaf] is fashioning himself as a candidate of gradual change, who can appeal to younger voters while retaining enough conservative bona fides from his days as soldier to satisfy the powerful religious elite.
The reference to his days as a soldier is a bit misleading. As the article mentions, Ghalibaf was more than a soldier. Ghalibaf served not in the Iranian Army but instead with the IRGC. His last assignment: leader of the IRGC Air Force.
Analysis: Articles like the Boston Globe profile of Ghalibaf promote a false understanding of Iranian governance. Power in Iran resides with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the IRGC. The Supreme Leader’s power includes control over the IRGC and the authority to determine which candidates are eligible to stand for election. The anticipated contest in the June 12, 2009 election between the “progressive” Tehran mayor and the confrontational president would not be a chance for a new day in Iran. An election featuring Ghalibaf as the principal opponent to Ahmadinejad would ensure that a senior IRGC leader would remain as Iran’s President. The same IRGC controls Iran’s rocket force and the nuclear program that many fear seek to equip those rockets with nuclear weapons.
Additionally, Ghalibaf may have competition in his quest to replace Ahmadinejad. Although Former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani has stated he will not run in the June 12 election, other candidates have already announced their intention to run and some speculate that Mohammad Khatami will run as a reformist candidate.
Iran Reduces EFP Attacks in Iraq
December 15, 2008 by Steven OHern · Leave a Comment
Attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq using explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) have reduced substantially according to LtGen Thomas Metz, past commander of Multi-National Corps-Iraq and currently the leader of the military’s effort to defend against roadside bombs. According to a Los Angeles Times article, attacks dropped only because of a decision by Iranian backed groups that were employing EFPs:
“In the past three months, they have gone way down,” Metz said. “Someone has made a decision on the Shia side in connection with Iran . . . to bring them down.”
Armor-piercing bombs now being found are less-sophisticated versions built in Iraq, not smuggled in from Iran, he said.
The devices never accounted for more than about 5% of all roadside bombs but have caused about 35% of the casualties, Metz said.
Iraqi government spokesman Ali Dabbagh was also quoted in the LA Times article stating that Iran had taken a more “positive stance” in recent months.
Analysis: EFPs are devastatingly effective even against the improved armor on Humvees and against other armored vehicles. A Royal Air Force C-130 was so disabled by an EFP attack in Maysan that it had to be destroyed in place. Why Iran has elected to reduce EFP attacks in Iraq is debatable. Perhaps Iran does not want to upset the planned U.S. withdrawal from Iraq that will leave an Iraqi government amenable to Iran’s bidding. Such a result has been Iran’s goal since the 2003 invasion. Regardless, the EFP remains a formidable weapon that Iran will continue to deploy in irregular wars fought by its proxies.
Four Hezbollah Members Caught in Iraq
December 8, 2008 by Steven OHern · 1 Comment
The UAE Daily News reports that the U.S. Army captured four members of Lebanese Hezbollah in Iraq. One was captured in in a raid on his hideout in the Baghdad district of Al-Rasafah. The three others in an unspecified operation elsewhere.
