The Intelligence Officer’s Lament
September 20, 2009 by Steve · 1 Comment
While catching up on my fiction reading, I came across this observation by an experienced but cautious CIA headquarters man in Agents of Innocence by David Ignatius. Stone, a veteran of the CIA that was not burdened with senseless rules in the days immediately following World War II, counsels Tom Rogers, the novel’s protagonist, about the maddening bureaucratic nature of secret organizations like intelligence agencies:
“This is the life cycle of a bureaucracy. Supple in youth. Rigid in middle age. Weak and decaying in old age. Organizations are like any other sort of animal. Their strongest instinct is to survive and reproduce themslves. It may be that the problems are greater in a secret organization like ours, where the bureaucratic culture is sealed off from the outside. But they aren’t fundamentally different.”
“What do you suggest?” asked Rogers.
“Take risks. Lean against the wind,” said Stone. “Listen to correct advice and ignore incorrect advice.”
“How do you know the difference?”
“Let us order dessert, shall we?” said Stone.
Comment: And as Stone’s final comment suggests, theory and observations about a bureaucracy are easier to dispense than developing a workable plan to succeed in spite of the bureaucracy. Agents of Innocence is set in 1970s in Lebanon, but the observation that David Ignatius placed on the lips of his character Stone is still accurate.
The novel accurately describes the huge amount of detailed information demanded by a headquarters prior to recruitment of an agent and the narrow view of how agents are to be motivated and controlled that is held by some intelligence officers (especially those at a headquarters.)
Sorry for the absence
June 12, 2009 by Steve · 1 Comment
I try not to make the posts about me, but wanted to explain. I’ve been working on a project that has kept me away from posting. I’ll be picking it back up. Steve O’Hern
Iran’s Involvement in Gaza Gets Noticed
January 7, 2009 by Steven OHern · Leave a Comment
As Israel’s incursion into Gaza continues, Iran’s connection to events in Gaza is being noticed by various media outlets.
The best I’ve seen is Reuel Marc Gerecht writing in today’s Wall Street Journal. Mr. Gerecht, a former CIA officer concisely summarizes Iran’s intervention in Gaza and describes it as part of a larger strategy for the region.
The mullahs have a chance of supplanting Saudi Arabia, the font of the most vicious anti-Shiite Sunni creed, as the most reliable backer of Palestinian fundamentalists. Even more than the Lebanese Hezbollah, which remains tied to and constrained by the complex matrix of Lebanese politics, Hamas seems willing to absorb enormous losses to continue its jihad against Israel. Where Saudi Arabia has been uneasy about the internecine strife among Palestinians — it has bankrolled both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas — Iran has put its money on the former.
. . .
Through Hamas, Tehran can possibly reach the ultimate prize, the Egyptian faithful. For reasons both ancient and modern, Egypt has perhaps the most Shiite-sympathetic religious identity in the Sunni Arab world. As long as Hamas remains the center of the Palestinian imagination — and unless Hamas loses its military grip on Gaza, it will continue to command the attention of both the Arab and Western media — Egypt’s politics remain fluid and potentially volatile. Tehran is certainly under no illusions about the strength of Egypt’s military dictatorship, but the uncertainties in Egypt are greater now than they have been since the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981.
Alireza Jafarzadeh, Foreign Affairs Analyst for FOX News, begins a post on a FOX News blog with a paragraph that leaves little doubt of Jafarzadeh’s opinion as to who is responsible for the violence in Gaza.
The loss of innocent lives in Gaza is deplorable. Behind the horrific scenes, a culprit of the current crisis crouches unscathed—-the ruling regime in Iran. This beast, which seeks to establish an “Islamic” empire by exporting its brand of Islamic fundamentalism throughout the region, has in many ways been nurtured and emboldened by the appeasement policies of the past three decades. And for those wrong-headed policies toward the ayatollahs’ regime, the West shares in the responsibility for the bloodshed and carnage inflicted on the Middle East.
Analysis: The violence in Gaza furthers the goals of Iran and the IRGC. Israel’s reaction to the rocket attacks, while understandable, subjects Israel to condemnation from much of the world, especially when innocent lives are demonstrably lost such as in the recent attack on the United Nations sponsored school. As Gerecht notes in his op-ed, Shia Iran works across sectarian lines, freely sponsoring Sunni Hamas. Iran’s leaders continue to focus on reducing the influence and power of its two main enemies, the United States and Israel.
After Syria Raid, IRGC Says Don’t Try Raiding Iran
October 29, 2008 by Steve · Leave a Comment
Acting IRGC commander Mohammad Hejazi has told reporters that Iran is able to defend its borders. Brig. Gen Hejazi said, “IRGC forces have the determination and experience to guard Iran’s national interests.”
In the same article, the IRGC Navy commander noted the growing strength of the IRGC naval forces which should concern U.S. forces and shippers. Admiral Morteza Saffari said that Iran’s navy has been reorganized and is ready to defend the nation against all threats.
“Iran’s naval forces will make sure that the enemy will live to regret any act of aggression against the Islamic Republic,” said Admiral Saffari.
Analysis:The possibility of retaliation by Iran after a raid is a very real threat that U.S. forces must take into account. While U.S. forces could probably strike into parts of Iran near the Iraq border successfully, the United States would then be faced with the prospect of three problems:
